War and rumours of war,do improvements in space technologies bring space conflict closer?

Combat in near-Earth orbit is emerging as a more realistic possibility. The argument here is that changes in space technologies combined with a sea change in political rhetoric is bringing the possibility of military conflict in space technologies. This movement reflects a generational shift as the original decisions regarding military conflict in space are now being reassessed by a generation who did not experience World War II or the Cold War. For these, the sanctuary approach to space activities is not as persuasive and new enhanced space technologies bring the possibility of victory or at least survival possible during a conflict in space.     

俄罗斯应对导航战举措

卫星导航系统作为重要的战场传感器,已经成为现代战争不可或缺的重要组成部分,围绕卫星导航系统的攻防博弈由此兴起。针对美国首先提出的导航战概念,俄罗斯为进一步提升导航战作战实力,有针对性地采取了应对举措。文章介绍了导航战概念及相关作战案例,具体分析了俄罗斯应对导航战威胁的主要举措,并结合美俄围绕导航战开展的攻防博弈,得出掌握现代战争制导航权的改进方向。     

电子战条件下飞机敏感性分析及其减缩技术

介绍了电子战和飞机生存力及敏感性的内涵,构建了飞机敏感性量化评价指标层次体系。定性分析了电子干扰对雷达探测概率和导弹脱靶距离标准差的影响,并以算例说明了干扰效能的增大会引起导弹制导精度的降低和脱靶距离的增大,从而得出:电子干扰对飞机的敏感性和生存概率有重要的影响。引入了干扰效能因子的概念,并分析了将干信比J/S作为一种干扰效能因子考虑的可行性及优点。最后给出了降低飞机敏感性的电子战措施。     

Nobody wins the victory taboo in just war theory

ABSTRACT

This article examines how scholars of the just war tradition think about the ethical dilemmas that arise in the endgame phase of modern warfare. In particular, it focuses upon their reticence to engage the idiom of ‘victory’. Why, it asks, have scholars been so reluctant to talk about what it means to ‘win’ a just war? It contends that, while just war scholars may have good reason to be sceptical about ‘victory’, engaging it would grant them a more direct view of the critical potentialities, but also the limitations, of just war reasoning.     

Conflict dynamics and costs in the Greek Civil War 1946–1949

Using a new set of data from Greek Army sources, US military archives, and Communist Party documents, the paper provides a quantitative analysis of the armed confrontation that took place in Greece during 1946–1949. A dynamic Lotka–Volterra model is estimated, pointing to the existence of a conflict trap that explains the prolongation of the civil war and its dire consequences for the country. A regional analysis finds that the mobilization of guerrilla forces was crucially affected by morphology and the local persecutions of political rivals. Using neoclassical growth-accounting, the economic cost of the conflict is estimated to surpass an annual GDP, in line with similar findings in contemporary civil wars. The same framework is employed to assess the outcome in counterfactual situations discussed in this paper.     

战争复杂系统研究现状分析

分析了经典复杂系统理论、仿真建模方法、综合集成方法以及作战实验室等方法在战争复杂系统研究中的应用,在此基础上,分析了国内外对战争复杂系统分析方法的共同特点,指出了分析方法中存在的问题,进一步给出了战争复杂系统分析方法中需要深入研究和完善的内容.     

信息网络作战技术

信息战是现代战争中重要作战样式,网络战是信息战的重要组成部分,分布式、网络化的计算机系统是信息作战中实施攻击与防护首要作战目标。根据网络作战的需求,从技术角度出发,首先对网络战的要素组成进行了分析,在此基础上将网络战划分为两个阶段,并对此进行了深入研究,最后提出了实施网络战的方法与步骤。     

Nuclear deterrence and cyber warfare: coexistence or competition?

Nuclear deterrence and cyber war seem almost antithetical in their respective intellectual pedigrees. Nuclear weapons are unique in their ability to create mass destruction in a short time. Information or “cyber” weapons, at least for the most part, aim at sowing confusion or mass disruption instead of widespread physical destruction. Nevertheless, there are some intersections between cyber and nuclear matters, and these have the potential to become troublesome for the future of nuclear deterrence. For example, cyber attacks might complicate the management of a nuclear crisis. As well, information attacks on command-control and communications systems might lead to a mistaken nuclear launch based on false warnings, to erroneous interpretations of data or to panic on account of feared information blackout. It is not inconceivable that future nuclear strike planning will include a preliminary wave of cyber strikes or at least a more protracted “preparation of the battlefield” by roaming through enemy networks to plant malware or map vulnerabilities.     

‘Cumulative Deterrence’ as a New Paradigm for Cyber Deterrence

This article suggests that there is a paradigm crisis in the sub-field of cyber deterrence. Cyber deterrence is evolving slowly and unpromisingly as a strategic tool in both theory and practice, mostly due to the ill-fitting theoretical framework and underlining assumptions it borrows from the absolute-nuclear-deterrence context. Therefore, this article suggests replacing the accepted yet inadequate paradigm of absolute deterrence with a better-fitting restrictive-cumulative-deterrence paradigm that draws on the Israeli approach to deterrence, introducing it into the cyber domain. The article further criticizes the current discourse in the field, including some ‘common knowledge’ (mis)understandings of cyberspace and the ways it affects the possibility of deterrence.     

Civilian Cooperation and Non-Cooperation with Non-State Armed Groups: The Centrality of Obedience and Resistance

Abstract

Terms like ‘support’ and ‘collaboration’ are often used interchangeably to denote a loose set of acts or attitudes that benefit non-state armed groups (NSAGs). However, these terms are seldom defined, and the alternatives available to civilians are rarely identified. Moreover, existing approaches overlook that the interaction between civilians and NSAGs is often one between ruler and ruled, which makes obedience and resistance central. This paper proposes to conceptualize the choices available to civilians as forms of cooperation and non-cooperation, offers a typology, and discusses the implications for theory building on civilian and NSAG behavior, and on the functioning of armed social orders.